Iraq 2010

Bush has revealed that troops, some 100,000, will still be needed in Iraq as late as 2010. This of course is ludicrous, first he will not be in office to make such a statement and secondly there will need to be many more troops to man the 10-15 permanent bases now established in Iraq. However, a prediction is in order for 2010.

After many personal entries about democracy and the facets of democracy, I have come to the realists’ viewpoint that Iraq will be divided into many smaller regions. This is an earlier notion which I put forward in graduate school; however the circumstances have changed in the past two years.

Part of Iraq will be dissolved and absorbed by Iran. Turkey will be in a constant conflict with Kurdistan to the North which will bring the EU back to the region as a peace keeping force. The central portion of Iraq will boil into a pool of warlords and green zones. Green zones for oil officials and warlords fighting for the scraps. American troops will be lost in the desert looking for an oasis of answers. Troops will be kidnapped and tortured, unlike Americans; Iraqis have a keen sense of history and will not forget the disgraces of the last decade.

The region will be more unstable and the Israeli /Palestinian debacle will be on the verge of genocide with Muslims herded into small corridors of land without adequate food, jobs, shelter or provisions. The US will be in a constant state of fear from the ever growing nuclear club of North Korea and Asia Minor. These will be desperate times. Logic and diplomatic discourse will not be easy to come by. A GOP or Democratic President will be demonized by the other side and amelioration of viewpoints will be absent. The last 5 years have given us a prelude to the next 20 years and the horrors of war and millions of dead have just begun to be counted.