Part II: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Saudi Arabian Dilemma

Part II: Afghanistan

“The single biggest threat to the emergence of a new Afghanistan is the cultivation of poppies”. Amb. Ross noted that even with improvement in the last year that obstacles are still pervasive in the country. Coupled with the potential of a Norco-state is the ever looming issue of ‘warlordism’. Amb. Jones believes “warlords are the answer … either through working with or co-opting through the government”. However, the major concern of both experts is the connection between drugs and terrorist activities. In fact, Jones puts it quite bluntly, when she states that we (US and NATO forces) must find the “nexus between narcotic sales and terrorism”. At this juncture is the root problem for a burgeoning Afghanistan.

On the other hand, both feel that tangible growth has been made in the region. Most of the credit was attributed to either President Hamid Karzai or the emergence of a stable civil society. Karzai is seen as a charismatic and determined leader. He has shown the will to lead and the political prowess to try and incorporate the warlords within the country. This is no easy task for as Amb. Jones explained feudal ‘warlordism’ has been a staple in Afghanistan politics for centuries. A further sign of this progress is the notable absence of the Taliban. Amb. Ross reveals that the Taliban has become “a near term problem (with) a capacity for disruption,” however they are without true staying power.

More importantly is the issue of insurgency. Ross clearly outlines insurgency power as vested in either apathy or assistance from the people. In other words, “insurgencies work when the public is with them or is passive”. Furthermore, the key to ending any insurgency is intelligence. Point in case is Iraq, according to Ross, intelligence is not readily available for coalition forces, thus the insurgency has the upper hand in regions such as the Sunni triangle.

Lastly, Amb. Jones comments that civil society is the “key” to creating a strong and independent Afghanistan. She reports that high election turn outs are a strong indicator of public support for the nascent democracy. Furthering, this line of thought was Ross who reminded the panel that “economic alternatives” are also important for a civil society to prosper and effectually create lasting and positive change in the region.

As a critique of the experts I found myself asking “where are the institutions?” In each study, strong leaders have blazed a trail for their dilemma ridden countries, however when these leaders are gone then strong democratic institutions must be in place. These institutions are difficult to create and even more perilous to keep viable. Thus, I agree with Amb. Ross’s timetable of foreign involvement lasting at least “a decade in the region”.