Part III: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Saudi Arabian Dilemma

Part III: Saudi Arabia

“This is a country that is enormously important to the United States … important of course because of oil”. With this statement Lee Hamilton revealed the elephant in the room: oil. Clearly, Saudi Arabia is strategic and relevant to US interests beyond the scope of oil (its geographical position is one such element); however its distinct oil arrangement gives it leverage and power with which the US has no counter weight. Thus, the Saudi dilemma is crystal clear.

Amb. Ross and Amb. Jones both understood this issue and gave unambiguous answers about the need for internal reform and the significance of Saudi society to “strike a balance”. Having visited Saudi Arabia, specifically Riyadh, I understand the societal issues facing most of the population. From the negation of women’s rights to the complete dependence of third world national labor. Issues such as election reform and schooling seem dream filled when looking at the society as a whole. Moreover, there are more pressing issues. Terrorism is now seen as the most critical question of the day. Saudi’s understand that 9/11 was contributed to Saudi born men and that now Al Qaeda has, as Ross remarked, “declared war on Saudi Arabia”. This war was most vivid to me when I realized that the compound in which my father and stepmother where living was attacked on May 13^th 2005.

Consequently, the issues of school reform, jobs and strategic dialogue most take a back seat to the underlining balance which holds Saudi Arabian society together. It is not oil, it is religion. The deal between the clerics and the royal Saudi family is the real strategic alliance in the country. The clerics ‘let the Saudi’s rule and the Saudi’s give the cleric’s free reign'. This is no secret. However, this balance has, in subsequent years, tilted more to the mullahs. The outcome is clear 9/11, and internal bombings. It is true that a direct link between the two is lacking, however it is also true that without the prominence of mullahs then neither would have occurred.

On the other hand, Ross and Jones give well developed examples concerning the need for, “independence of foreign oil (which) will give us (the US) more leverage to fashion change”. This is an essential step in the region. Oil stacks the deck in favor of the Saudis and this also is no secret. Coupled with oil are jobs and liberal education. Jones analysis of the employment crisis in Saudi is correct and comprehensible. Moreover, her emphasis on education and employment as needed for Saudi Arabian society to develop in the long run. It is one thing to have an enormous amount of PhD’s graduating from a particular country; it is another when the majority of those PhD’s are centered on Koranic study.

To close, is the issue of King Abdullah and his propensity to move reform at a slow and deliberate pace. This pace however can be accelerated by the people that surround the new king. As Ross points out the cadre surrounding the king is now made up of academics, which can help the reforming process. However, Ross notes that this will in all likelihood only establish, “gradualistic change”.